The technology at the heart of this dilemma is molecular manufacturing. A machine capable of molecular manufacturing—whether nanoscale or macroscale—has two possible functions: to create more manufacturing capacity by duplicating itself, and to manufacture products. Most products created by molecular manufacturing will not possess any capacity for self-duplication, or indeed for manufacturing of any kind; as a result, each product can be evaluated on its own merits, without worrying about special risks. A nanotechnology-based manufacturing system, on the other hand, could build weapons, grey goo, or anything else it was programmed to produce. The solution, then, is to regulate nanofactories; products are far less dangerous. A nanotechnology-built car could no more turn into grey goo than a steel-and-plastic car could.
Some products, however, will be powerful enough to require restriction. Weapons built by nanotechnology would be far more effective than today's versions. Very small products could get lost and cause nano-litter, or be used to spy undetectably on people. And a product that included a general molecular manufacturing capability would be, effectively, an unregulated nanofactory—horrifyingly dangerous in the wrong hands. Any widespread use of nanotechnology manufacturing must include the ability to restrict, somehow, the range of products that can be produced.
If it can be done safely, widespread use of molecular manufacturing looks like a very good idea for the following reasons:
1.The ability to produce duplicate manufacturing systems means that manufacturing capacity could be doubled almost for free.
3.Emergency and humanitarian aid could be supplied quickly and cheaply
4.Many of the environmental pressures caused by our current technology base could be mitigated or removed entirely.
5.The rapid and flexible manufacturing cycle will allow many innovations to be developed rapidly.
Although a complete survey and explanation of the potential benefits of nanotechnology is beyond the scope of this paper, it seems clear that the technology has a lot to offer.
All of these advantages should be delivered as far as is consistent with minimizing risks. Humanitarian imperatives and opportunities for profit both demand extensive use of nanotechnology. In addition, failure to use nanotechnology will create a pent-up demand for its advantages, which will virtually guarantee an uncontrollable black market. Once molecular manufacturing has been developed, a second, independent development project would be both far easier and far more dangerous than the original project. The first nanofactory must be made available for widespread use to reduce the impetus for independent development.
Development of nanotechnology must be undertaken with care to avoid accidents; once a nanotechnology-based manufacturing technology is created, it must be administered with even more care. Irresponsible use of molecular manufacturing could lead to black markets, unstable arms races ending in immense destruction, and possibly a release of grey goo. Misuse of the technology by inhumane governments, terrorists, criminals, and irresponsible users could produce even worse problems—grey goo is a feeble weapon compared to what could be designed. It seems likely that research leading to advanced nanotechnology will have to be carefully monitored and controlled.
However, the same is not true of product research and development. The developer of nanotechnology-built products does not need technical expertise in nanotechnology. Once a manufacturing system is developed, product designers can use it to build anything from cars to computers, simply by reusing low-level designs that have previously been developed. A designer may safely be allowed to play with pieces 1,000 atoms on a side (one billion atoms in volume). This is several times smaller than a bacterium and 10,000,000 times smaller than a car.
Working with modular “building blocks” of this size would allow almost anything to be designed and built, but the blocks would be too big to do the kind of molecular manipulation that is necessary for nano-manufacturing or to participate in biochemical reactions. A single block could contain a tiny motor or a computer, allowing products to be powered and responsive. As long as no block contained machinery to do mechanochemistry, the designer could not create a new kind of nanofactory.
Once designed and built, a product of molecular manufacturing could be used by consumers just like a steel or plastic product. Of course, some products, such as cars, knives, and nail guns, are dangerous by design, but this kind of danger is one that we already know how to deal with. In the
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